Introduction

The construction of Mexico’s railway network began in the final decades of the nineteenth century and reached its zenith on the eve of the Mexican Revolution, acquiring a layout that has remained largely unchanged ever since, with only minor expansions built throughout the twentieth century. Today, railways are returning to Mexico as part of an infrastructure-led development strategy pursued by recent governments, after decades of aspatial neoliberalism that fostered their abandonment and privatization. The Maya Train and the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (CIIT), among other projects, exemplify this revival in transportation infrastructure.

Claudia Sheinbaum, the current president, has doubled down on the course set by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO), aiming to consolidate the political project he launched and translate it into stronger economic results by announcing more than 3,000 kilometers of new railways to connect the country. However, their construction has primarily been entrusted to the Mexican armed forces—the Army and Navy—who plan, execute, and manage them, thereby expanding their functions beyond public security. The military is viewed as more efficient and faster in delivering infrastructure, yet its expanding role raises concerns about transparency and democratic accountability.

This militarized infrastructure state, with railways at its forefront, is central to the country’s objectives of industrialization and regional development. This is especially salient as the geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States makes Mexico an attractive destination for the relocation of production from Asia to North America. The challenge for Mexico’s political elite is to fully capitalize on the opportunities offered by nearshoring while navigating the interests of both superpowers and consolidating its hold on power at home.—
The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect the views of the SCWO.

Mexico’s Nearshoring Opportunity in the Second Cold War

The Second Cold War is characterized by a global dynamic to structure and control the strategic nodes of infrastructure, production, digital, and financial networks. This context, which mostly features China and the U.S. as its main actors, is not an attempt to reverse globalization but to reshape it. Therefore, third countries seek to stay aligned with and connected to both superpowers, as the logic of this competition does not incentivize them to remain isolated from global value chains, thereby favoring a “polyalignment” strategy.

In this context, Mexico may benefit from the relocation of companies from Asia to North America—a process known as nearshoring—in what is widely considered the most competitive macro-region globally. In recent decades, Mexico has served as an export platform for the U.S. and Canada, thanks to its free trade agreement with both countries (USMCA). Now, the U.S.–China trade war, together with the COVID-19 pandemic, have precipitated changes in the functioning of multiple global value chains that favor Mexico’s position in several sectors, including the automotive industry. The country has advantages such as its proximity to end markets, industrial capacity, and an abundant workforce with competitive labor costs. If Mexico upgrades its industrial and logistics capacity amid nearshoring, it could cement its role as a “connector country” between the Asia-Pacific and the North Atlantic regions. Yet to fully realize that role, it must also enhance its internal connectivity—particularly to ports and border crossings—to integrate peripheral regions, prevent industrial concentration, and promote balanced regional growth through stronger transport infrastructure.

Militarization of the Infrastructure State during Mexico’s Fourth Transformation

The 2018 national elections marked the beginning of a radical transformation of the Mexican political system. That year, a new political party, Morena, won a majority in Congress and brought AMLO to the presidency. This majority allowed him to advance his hegemonic project, the Fourth Transformation (or 4T), which included an array of neo-developmentalist policies that combined social assistance programs (which ultimately lifted 6 million people out of poverty) with a set of strategic infrastructure projects to bolster domestic industry, including upgrades to and construction of oil refineries, as well as new and rehabilitated railways. Such projects have been funded primarily with public resources to gain autonomy from both international and domestic private financial actors, even as foreign firms—including Chinese companies—have been contracted for construction.

The development of infrastructure also included a new airport on the outskirts of Mexico City, next to a military air base. The construction of Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) was entrusted to the Mexican Army, which, although accused of irregular contracting, completed the project in record time. The armed forces are often said to operate with greater efficiency and control than other public institutions or the private sector, albeit at the expense of transparency and accountability. Eventually, the armed forces created over a dozen state-owned companies during AMLO’s term to manage trains, airports, ports, parks, hotels, and an airline. There is even a holding company that groups them. Thus, this new militarism in Mexico involves using the armed forces to advance a political project, aligning the institution more closely with the presidency and ruling party.

The empowerment of the military to compete in the market and undertake large-scale infrastructure projects necessitated “state restructuring.” Power was rebalanced within national institutions or situated in new ones, regulatory reforms were introduced to fast-track infrastructure projects, and augment state capacity. Now, this restructuring is continuing in response to the opportunity structure shaped by the U.S.–China geopolitical rivalry. In some instances, it has resulted in the emergence of the infrastructure state, which can mobilize substantial capital for spatial projects to enhance transnational connectivity. In Mexico, state restructuring has been deployed most notably to modernize the railway system. Through a presidential decree by AMLO, followed by a constitutional reform under Sheinbaum, rail transport was designated a national development priority, and the Mexican state regained the authority to provide passenger rail service. The reform also created a new federal rail agency entrusted not only with regulation but also with the planning, construction, and operation of rail projects.

The process of state restructuring is also exemplified by the establishment of military-controlled state enterprises and by executive decrees shifting responsibilities from civilian agencies to the armed forces. The Maya Train embodies both dynamics. Designed to expand tourism from the Mexican Caribbean coast into the interior, the railway loops around the Yucatán Peninsula, cutting through dense jungle, prompting protests from local communities and environmental groups. After civil-society organizations obtained several injunctions to halt construction, AMLO alleged that some were receiving funds from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID); the government subsequently designated the Maya Train—and other infrastructure projects—as a matter of national security and transferred their management to the Army.